Pre Week 0 Predictions: I haven't been able to get out and see the teams this summer, so I'll post my prediction that I put together shortly after Thurston wrapped up their second place trophy....
1. Thurston
2. Marshfield
3. Churchill
4. Willamette
5. Springfield
6. North Eugene
Overview: It's going to be a two team race for first seed between Marshfield and Thurston. A perfect scenario for this Pirate alum would be that the Colts and Pirates go undefeated their first four games, setting up a league championship game on the bay. Hmnn, where do I eat? At the Mill Casino with the tourists, The High Tide in Charleston - a secret locals' dive, or the great Bar-B-Q at Susick Stadium?
The third spot will be a fight between Willamette and Churchill. If the winner of the Willamette at Churchill game also picks off Marshfield or Thurston, they could set up a three way tie for the title.
Springfield's and North Eugene's route to the playoffs is probably going to be getting themselves in a three way tie for third at 2-3 and then winning the coin toss.
Overall, there's no dominant force similar to last year's Colts. The gap between the top teams and bottom teams has closed and with the possibility of getting to the playoffs with two wins and a coin flip, everyone is in it.
Email comments and corrections to Gary Haliski at mwlnow@yahoo.com
1. Thurston. Last year was a special year for the Colts, with a large class of talented, quick and strong seniors. Everyone is expecting them to be vulnerable, but remember that the Colts have been to the playoffs five straight years, including a couple of playoff visits is in the old 9 team format. Coach Justin Starck has developed consistency in his players work ethics and win-loss expectations. Do we have a 5A version of Sheldon in the works here? MWL Defensive player of the year, Kyle Wright, will lead the defense. But keep your eyes on junior D and O lineman Kraig Akins, first team all league on both sides of the ball as a sophomore last year. Kraig makes Kyle's job easier. They are a fun pair to watch. They combined for 31 sacks last year.
Wright, also a first team receiver, and Andrew Woody, another all league receiver, will be catching the ball from Chance Hendrickson. Hendrickson was 25 for 40 during regular season last year as a backup to Tym Pearson. By the time he has four non league games under his belt, he should be in prime shape for league. Big boy Akins was also first team offensive tackle. Running back is a big question for the Colts, although their offense can be adjusted to a 'carry the ball by committee' approach. First Team place kicker Gustavo Machuca got a sore leg last year converting all of the Colt's high octane offense's extra points. I think you'll be seeing a lot of field goal attempts this year. The Colts won't be scoring at will and Gustavo will need the field goal experience for the playoffs.
2. Marshfield. New head coach Justin Ainsworth starts his Pirate career with the only returning all league QB, Kyle Tedder. He's got some experienced receivers in Chris Krajcir and Talo Silver. Both of these guys are short and quick and averaged around 10 yards per catch in league last year. Tedder will also be throwing to a 6'3" secret weapon. Silver and Ryan Scoville will be carrying the ball. Scoville averaged 13 yards per carry in league last year. Don't expect him to be a workhorse as Silver will get plenty of carries, just don't lose track of Scoville or he will surprise you and be waving at you from the end zone.
The Pirate line will be anchored, and I mean anchored, by all leaguers Bo Cutting and junior John Castro. The Pirates were loaded with a lot of 225+ linemen last year who are back. We'll find out if they step up.
If new head coach Ainsworth can get this team to believe in itself and execute on the field, the Pirates could take it all. They have an opportunity to build their attitude during another incredibly tough pre league schedule, they'll be lucky to come out of pre season with a winning record. The Pirates will be coming off an away game against Jefferson of Portland when they host Churchill in their league opener. They end league play by hosting the Colts on the last nite of regular season play.
3. Churchill. I like Churchill's league schedule. They host Willamette, Springfield and North Eugene. Win those three and they should secure a playoff spot. Head coach Darrell Mehl should be able to continue the Lancer aerial circus with Taylor Derlacki and all league receiver Sam Graham returning.
QB play will have to come from someone without much varsity experience. Cody Kloehn was 14-28 passing last year during regular season as Eric Knapp's backup. The Lancers also have a tough job in filling RB Chas Rogers shoes. They'll need to find a good back, or else their opponents will be pinning back the QB's ears.
The Lancer's have a sure place kicker in second team all leaguer Alex Priaulx, who booted 36 PAT's and three field goals in regular season. Guaranteed to come in handy this year.
I think league fans will be surprised at Churchill's D - it will be much better. This is an experienced defensive team. They'll be motivated to to improve on giving up 26 points a game in league last year. Should be a piece of cake. All leaguer Brynnan Hyland will be leading the D effort. Derlacki, Graham, Will Bales and Kyle Rehberger bring back a lot of tackles. |
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4. Willamette. Just two years ago coach Dan Fritz led his Wolverines to a 10-2 season. A 5-0 start in 2008, including wins over two SOC teams, made everyone wonder if Willamette had turned the corner on consistency. But the MWL found weaknesses in the Wolverine D as every team scored at least 27 points against Willamette. I saw the Wolverines quite a few times last year. The players were talented, but constantly thwarted their own drives with 5 yard penalties, holds on big plays - holding is why a lot of big plays are big- and turnovers on poor execution. These controllable miscues put the D on the field way too soon. (It didn't help that their starting QB was KO'd in the first league game and didn't return til week four of league.) Let's hope Willamette plays with more precision this year. It's more fun to watch football when their are fewer yellow flags. I'm anxious to see all-leaguer Rafael Hildago return. He'll certainly get better as he sees dramatically increased playing time during pre league games. He'll be able to dart through holes made by a fellow all leaguer, lineman Nick White. Last year's varsity roster was sprinkled with 9 OL over 220 pounds who could return. If they hit the weight room this summer, look out! The QB spot should be in the hands of the more than capable Jake Hughes. Hughes was put in the QB hot seat unexpectedly during the first league game against Thurston last year. Still, he completed nearly 50 per cent of his passes in his three league games. Knowing he is going to be the starter, he'll undoubtedly improve his TD-INT ratio as he'll get more reps in practice and in pre league games. Hughes can count on 6'2" Taylor Woodke at receiver. Woodke bothered some teams last year, and they'll want to watch him a little more this year. That should free up other receivers. During Willamette's 10-2 season in 2007, the D held 7 of 10 regular season opponents to 13 points or less. So we know coach Fritz has a scheme that works. All league linebacker RJ Durbin will be leading the defensive resurgence. Don't expect opponents to put up big numbers like last year. Woodke, Hildago, LB's Brycen Ganfield, Dillion Machado, Danny Granillo, linemen White & Taylor Smith all return with varsity playing time in league on D. Questoin? Will hats be flying again for Willamette's D like they did for the ferocious Wolverine D's about 10 years ago? I hope so, Willamette backers used to be the meanest and quickest in the league. Springfield. If ever there was a team destined for the cellar based on returning experience, it's this year's Millers. Almost all of the skill positions on O graduated as well as the line, and the D is almost all gone. So what's to like? Well, I like their attitude. There seems to be something positive in the wind at Springfield with their football and baseball programs. Head coach Skip Raish certainly has been in similar situations after 25 years at Willamette. Fortunately, the Millers start with two winnable games prior to hosting Marist. I'm predicting good outings in the first two games; not necessarily wins, but building to a super test against the Spartans. If the Millers' helmets aren't poppin' by then, it could be a long season. Receiver Jake Becker is the only Miller with significant offensive stats, not surprising with all of the graduates on last year's team. Last year's varsity roster listed six linemen weighing 225 or more who could be returning, but the starters could come from the other 13 returning linemen weighing less. A little internal competition is just what coach Raish needs in a year with few returning staters. Finally, I am biased for the Millers over the North because they have some of my favorite baseball players on their roster. I don't even know if they can play football, but they have great attitudes. Blaine Dudley, Kameron Bates, Ollie Johnson, Alex Camarena and Trevor Mathison were a hoot to watch on the diamond. North Eugene. Much like Springfield, coach Eric Johannsen and the Highlanders lost their offensive skill positions. But they have a huge advantage in 2007 1st team all league running back Michael Bibbee. He's 6-3, 225 pounds with 4.7 speed. MWL fans remember him as a great sophomore running back in '07 who was injured last year. However, most fans have forgotten that he is a monster linebacker who will be intimidating opposing running backs. Bibbee prefers chewing on willow and alder trees compared to aerial maneuvers to avoid buckshot and has verbally committed to OSU. Another name MWL fans will remember is Shay Riggs, another 2007 all leaguer . He was listed as 6'2", 240 last year. We didn't hear much from Riggs last year as he played hurt, but he'll be tying up two guys this year, giving Bibbee more field to play with. The QB slot is up for grabs. I might move North up in my predictions if they go with a Polish quarterback. Junior Dylan Lubonski is competing with another junior, Jackson Landgreen. The QB will be without experienced receivers. ...Anyone thinking halfback pass? Bibbee will undoubtedly improve North's defense. The key will be North's secondary. The DB's will be green and young. If the DB's gel early, North will be in good shape. North's D line will be much better this year. The Highlanders start with a bye. They can watch Springfield host Dallas. Then North travels to Crook County, hosts a tough North Bend team, and then travels to Springfield for the only league match of week 4. Of course, North Eugene has some great baseball players on their football roster. Senior Alex Crum and juniors Tyler Dumileu, , Kyle DeHaven and Shaun Boehm were on the varsity football roster last year. It's not baseball season, but I'll say it now. Watch out for North this spring! - Whoops, it appears Dumileu has transferred to Thurston. Enough already. My new hip is fine, I have the green light to drive so it's time to get out to see the teams and coaches. Email comments and corrections to Gary Haliski at mwlnow@yahoo.com
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