Final 2011 Prediction made after September 2nds non league games. The September 2 games didn't help much. For the most part, we either crushed weak opponents or got crushed.
Final MWL 2011 League Prediction
1. Marist
2. Churchill
3. Ashland
4. Eagle Point
5. Willamette
6. Springfield
7. Marshfield
8. North Eugene
You can probably count on my picks for 1st, 6,th7th and 8th. Churchll, Ashland, Eagle Point and Willamette seem to be about equal and a lot will depend on how each team's quarterback and line improve.
Gary's Way Too Early Prediction - August 8:
1. Marist
2. Eagle Point
3. Churchill
4. Ashland
5. Willamette
6. Springfield
7. Marshfield
8. North Eugene
1. Marist. Not as easy of a route to the title as last year. A team doesn't lose Silver, Mayes, Deveraux, Swindling, Beattie and more without going down a notch. But the entire speedy, tough, sure handed receiving corp returns. Austin Baird was second in league receiving yards last year, Taylor Walcott (2011 5A 100 meter champ) was fourth and Josh Paiment was good for 29.6 yards per catch after coming back from an injury while playing QB. Whoever ends up at QB just needs to put the ball out there for the receivers to catch. Not to be overlooked will be the return of running back Greg Park, at 89 yards per game - 4th in league last year.. That gives the Spartans great flexibility on O. If the lineman develop quickly, look out MWL! A lot of talk about ex-Wolverine Kamerun Smith at QB. My stepson, Alex Brink, came home from a camp he was working this summer and asked me if 'Smith' was the name of the Willamette QB I had been touting. Alex liked what he saw. Here are my thoughts - Smith throws a sweet ball, but expect to see a lot of speed rushers attack from the outside to test Smith's running ability. Smith is tall enough to dink the ball to an outlet back in a jam, so he might not have to run, but I sure wouldn't let Smith stand back and throw all day.
Senior all league linemen Mitch Olive and Paxton Miller will be opening holes for Park.
2. Eagle Point. I liked the fight the Eagles showed in their game at Churchill last year. The Eagles came out and looked like they were going to destroy Air Lancer, going up 14-0 in the first Q. But Churchill tied it by halftime. The Lancers were up 21-20 after three. Eagle Point said enough of this fancy-pants passing game and played Snowball, by rumbling Garrett Snow the fourth quarter for a 39-21 win. Eagle Point then easily handled Willamette the next week, but had a Jekyll & Hyde season after that. I like the fact they DL/T Tryone Homes is back. He was 6-4, 240 last year. The Eagles can fill four other positions with all-stars besides Snow and Holmes. Zach Reed and Devon Adams return in the secondary along with Daniel Morgan (6' ", 200 lb LB last year). Adams doubled as a very good receiver. Bryan Strong returns as an all league O lineman. In case you've forgotten - Snow isn't just a running back, he also caught 18 passes in league last year.
3. Air Lancer. Running back Aaron Ingram (6th in league rushing yardage last year) alone should be enough for me to rank Churchill number two. But the Lancer's lost their top three receivers and their quarterback, so Air Lancer will struggle. Hah! I've seen Churchill lose a ton of talent before. Before you know it, the other team's heads are spinning. Junior receiver Andrew Bennion will likely be one of the Lancer's who keep the Air Lancer tradition going. Jake Dezarn returns as an all league DB. I'm sure the Lancers will put his hands to use somewhere as he is an excellent baseball player. Juniors to be all leaguers DL Gavin Cowles (6' 2", 200 last year) and center Jermeny Crutchfield (5-10, 170 in 2010) return. By the way, RB Ingram is much like Eagle Point's Snow in that Ingram also catches the ball out of the backfield a lot.
4. Ashland. Ashland tore up Japan in the Pacific Rim Bowl earlier this month. Looks like the Grizzlies found a good QB in soph Daniel White. He has good receivers in Sam Geisslinger, Franklin Limema, Taylor Humphrey and Quaid Walters. One Volz graduated at running back. This year it looks like junior Jon Volz will get more carries. The Grizzlies lost Jake McCoy in a trade for another player to be named later - or maybe never.
The top four teams are from the top of the MWL alphabet - A, C. EP M - , therefore the bottom four must be from the bottom of the MWL alphabet - M, NE, S, W. Now you know my methodology.
5. Willamette. I"m going with the Wolverines over Springfield for 5th. Every team in the league lost their starting quarterback. I think it's easier to build on a good returning running game and Willamette has some good backs returning. Jordan Visarraga, Dante Giles and Bryce York all got a decent amount of carries behind Skyler Moore. Visarraga had occasional glimpses of brilliance, which he'll need to turn into a regularity if the Wolverines are to succeed. The receiving corp should be quite capable with 6' 1 ' Zach Hatefi and 6' 4 '" Mitch Crownover returning. Keep an eye on two-way all leaguer (LB, OT) junior to be Tyler Johnson.
6. Springfield. The Millers can build their O line around 1st team guard Clanton Self (6' 0", 260) and all league center Isias Giron (5' 8", 210). Junior Jon Emerald was an all league DB and will likely be on the receiving end of passes along with returning receivers Alister Jorkan and Dylan Pullen. (I threw away the Springfield-Marshfield game roster last year while Springfield was shellacking my Pirates 50-6. With the roster went my list of underclassmen who were getting significant playing time for the Millers.)
7. Marshfield. Marshfield returns just one all league player, but he's a big one. Receiver Dalton Milburn was listed at 6' 6" and 260 last year. Running back chores will likely be filled by Ty Cutting. Marshfield had three huge sophomore linemen on the roster last year. If these guys get in shape, look out. But the tendency the last few years has been to go with whoever is in shape, and a lot of small linemen have pushed the big boys out of the way.
8. North Eugene. Welcome back head coach Edmund Rivera. I'll keep expectations low so you can exceed them. The Highlanders need to get baseball pitcher Andrew Moore to pull a Blake Stepp and play quarterback his senior year. Not likely, as Moore is committed to gnaw on trees 45 miles to the north, and play some baseball there, too. Rivera will start with a couple of good returning offensive weapons. Running back Travis Brumwill was good for over 5 yards per carry while watching Alex Wilson get most of the workload. Receiver Ryan Koth was 10th in league in yardage.
That's it for the 'way too early' poll. I hope to visit some practices of several schools before the first games Sept 2. I had fun visiting the teams last year and got a good feel for the spirit of the teams. I'll post another MWL poll update right before the September 2 games. By then I should know which players have moved, transferred or dropped the sport.
Email comments, corrections and personnel changes to Gary Haliski at mwlnow@yahoo.com
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