The annual Way-Too-Early Prediction -
March 1, second day of practice
Five years ago it would have been hard to believe that the MWL would become a state power in baseball. However, in the last four years, three different MWL teams have earned their way to the state finals, culminating in consecutive titles by Thurston and North Eugene. North, Thurston and Churchill have all made it to the finals recently. North has always had a strong program, while Thurston and Churchill upgraded their physical plants and their quality of play over the last six years.
Now it looks like it's Willamette that is stepping into the Bigs. Last year the Wolverines featured two 1st team all league frosh, Cole Uriste and Scott Kuvass. Throw in a honorable mention all leaguer, Trent Waggoner, and the huge new Ark to practice in, and you have a program ready to excel. With the exception of Churchill, the MWL was pretty young last year. And all three of our playoff teams made the quarterfinals!
North and Thurston return a huge load of talent. Churchill graduated all but three of their players, so it could be a tough season for Churchill in a year the MWL features a ton of returning all leaguers. Springfield graduated a fair amount of players, but if league MVP Kameron Bates recovers from a ligament injury suffered during football season, the Millers might pitch their way back to the quarterfinals.
If you're wondering who will win league, factor in up-and-coming Willamette with four returning all leaguers; and Marist with four all leaguers - Marist's Will Swindling and Logan Silver doubling up as all staters.
I haven't been keeping up with Sheldon and South Eugene so I don't have a feel for how they'll do in 2011. Both teams got pounded in the Southwest Conference last year, finishing fifth and sixth in a six team league. It must have made the Irish and Axemen feel better when South Medford made it all the way to the finals, finishing second in state.
So, my early thinking goes like this...
Order of finish 5A = North Eugene, Marist, Willamette, Springfield, Churchill, Marshfield
Order of finish 6A = Thurston, Sheldon, South Eugene
Combined Order =
1.North Eugene,
2. Thurston,
3. Marist,
4. Sheldon,
5. Willamette,
6. Springfield,
7. South Eugene,
8. Churchill,
9. Marshfield
-- If Kameron Bates is 100% out of the blocks, move Springfield up a spot in 5A only, and two spots in the 9 team combined league.
I'm confident that the league champion will come from my top three choices. North gets the overall nod due to it's returning pitching staff. Thurston's staff has to be right behind, and the Colts probably have a better hitting team on paper. Marist, Sheldon, Willamette and Springfield have to find either one or two staff aces per team. I don't think South Eugene or Churchill could jump all the way to the title, but either could move way up. Marshfield's role is likely to be spoiler again, beating an upper tier team or two, thus dropping them in seeding. Here's a closer look:
North Eugene brings back Andrew Moore (2010 league ERA 1.54), Kyle DeHaven (1.49) and Chris Clayton (0.47) on the mound. It was North Eugene's defense that got them into the playoffs. MWL opponents are going to be hoping that North hits like they did most of last season.... miserably.
The Highlanders couldn't hit, earn a walk, or lay down a bunt until Coach Nicholsen had a night time batting practice late in the season that seemed to ignite the North bats. If that nighttime practice hadn't worked, my last photo of Nicholsen would have been of him lying in the third base coaches box, clutching his chest after a missed sac bunt. But instead of resting in peace , he survived and got to watch the Highlanders take home the state title.
Other players opponents wish had graduated: Garrett Harpole (hit .347 in league) and Erik Long (.317). By the way, anyone hoping North Eugene goes deep into the basketball playoffs? |
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Thurston also returns a tough pitching staff. Tyler Johnson (league ERA 1.19) and soph Kyle Watson (1.77) were a combined 5-1 for the Colts. They'll be getting most of the starts now that Dawson Phinney (5W-3L) graduated. Junior Jarren Goddard brings the power to the Colts lineup (.413 in league last year). Zach Kopczenski (.326) and TJ (.379) are going to have to be hot in key games if the Colts are going to win the MWL title. Tylor Dumilieu (.367) has wheels and will be a pest on the bases.
Marist's all state catcher Will Swindling has already committed to the University of San Francisco. Another all-stater, Logan Silver, is headed to Holy Cross for football. Seniors Zach Eyster and Ryan Inouye were all league Sky-Em last year. Matt Beattie and Bennet McKee are on Baseball Northwest's Watch List. I don't think Marist has enough top-notch pitching to take the title, but if everyone beats up on everyone else, they could sneak all the way to the top.
Sheldon returns a couple of all leaguer's - Cason Cunningham, a first baseman, and outfielder Ryan Land. Stan Manley returns to Sheldon as head coach. Jim Fryback is helping out with pitching. These two have taken several teams deep into the playoffs. They'll have a challenge this year.
Willamette is my surprise pick of the season. Coach Guldager started changing the program four years ago. Attention to detail and a committment to baseball by the players is expected and Guldager is getting results. Fans saw a change in attitude on the field the last couple of years, but the club just wasn't deep enough in quality pitchers and the defense was porous at times. That's all changed - although we need to see proof on the mound.
Key Wolverine players: Soph Scott Kuvass was a vacuum cleaner at short as a frosh and earned 1st team all league honors. Kuvaas also hit .372 in league. Another soph, Cole Urioste also made 1st team last year and hit .349. Last year's youth movement included all leaguer Trent Waggoner, a junior now. Senior all leaguer Tony Svennson hit at a .356 clip last year and was second on the team in league rbi's. These guys have been able to work out in the Ark all winter and should be ready to play on day 1.
My favorite team last year because of their spunk and team chant, Springfield rode league MVP Kameron Bate's arm (4-1 in league) to the league title. I'm dropping the Miller's down as I have concern's about Bates recovery from the ligament injury. Also, while the Millers return a few of their key players, they lost a lot of speed and sass in last year's group of seniors.
But consider this, if Bates is healthy, team's will also have to deal with one of last year's other frosh phenom's, pitcher Malik Evans (4-0). Two quality pitchers are enough to go deep in the playoffs, but might not get the Millers into the upper half of the nine team MWL. All Leaguer Blaine Dudley and senior Ryan Helfrich will provide the Miller power at the plate.
Like Sheldon, I haven't followed South Eugene the last four years after the OSAA split into six classifications. The Axemen have three all leaguers returning from the tough Southwest Conference. They are 2nd teamers senior Gus Craig in the outfield and sophomore Jay Schindler in the infield. Carlos Larson was an honorable mention pitcher.
Churchill missed the playoffs for the first time in eight years last year. They fielded an almost all senior team, with just three underclassmen on the schedule. The good news is that they finished on a four game win streak. The potential returning varsity players are Chase Kearney, Jacob DeZarn and Kylan Pomerey.
Marshfield continues to retool their program. Junior Zach Thrall made all league last year. Promising left handed senior pitcher Kane Rowley is probably out for the season due to an injury. Another key junior is catcher Raymond Jones. The Pirates need to find some horses to throw to Jones. Other: Tyler Davidson returns and may be the only senior if Rowley can't go. Coach Hall will probably be in the spoiler role once again this year, a role the Pirates play quite well. Davidson, Thrall and Jones will be joined by juniors Deven Knowlton at 1b, Mason Anderson at 2B, and sophomores Alex Dew, Doug Molzahn and Tyler Johnson.
As always, I appreciate additions and corrections. Mail them to mwlnow@yahoo.com. |
